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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 68

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 21 for 3 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP