Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 3 – New York Jets 10

(5:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 72-M.Clemons, Center-56-J.Coco, RECOVERED by NYJ-39-W.Parks at GB 20. 39-W.Parks for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.13 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model