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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 35

New York Jets 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-G.Zuerlein 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.00 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model