Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 74

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 60 yards to NYJ 14, Center-56-J.Coco. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 33 for 19 yards (6-D.Leavitt, 56-J.Coco). PENALTY on NYJ-21-A.Davis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model