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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 84

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 7-B.Mann punts 58 yards to GB 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 34 for 8 yards (26-B.Echols). PENALTY on GB-45-E.Wilson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.52 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP