Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to NYJ 8, Center-56-J.Coco, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP

KICK -0.85 EP

40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
60% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model