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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 7-B.Mann punts 6 yards to NYJ 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-72-M.Clemons.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model