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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 29

Green Bay Packers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-M.Crosby 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (95-Q.Williams), Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model