Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(14:55) 14-R.Wright punts 49 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model