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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 93

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 14-R.Wright punts 73 yards to MIA 20, Center-42-A.DePaola. 10-T.Hill to MIA 18 for -2 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO -3.37 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.19 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 93, worth -5.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 51, worth -3.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model