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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 41

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 14-R.Wright punts 24 yards to MIA 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.19 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP