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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 88

Miami Dolphins 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 4-T.Morstead punts 62 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIA 49 for 25 yards (4-T.Morstead).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 88, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model