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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 54

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to MIA 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-44-J.Metellus.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP