Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 91

Miami Dolphins 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

(9:31) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to MIN 41, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 91, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model