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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(13:31) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-C.Fejedelem. 42-C.Fejedelem right end pushed ob at MIA 34 for no gain (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model