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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 34

Miami Dolphins 3 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model