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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 26

Miami Dolphins 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.37 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP