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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 14-R.Wright punts 42 yards to MIA 25, Center-42-A.DePaola. 8-J.Holland MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 27, recovered by MIA-15-J.Phillips at MIA 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP