4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(:21) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to LA 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.11 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model