Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 16 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

(5:07) 11-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to CAR 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-S.Smith to CAR 13 for 2 yards (36-G.Haley).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.23 EP
73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model