Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 17

(13:43) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to LA 24, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-B.Powell to LA 39 for 15 yards (44-J.Jansen).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model