Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 10-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to LA 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-B.Powell. PENALTY on LA-5-J.Ramsey, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at LA 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model