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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 79

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 11-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to CAR 26, Center-42-M.Orzech. 12-S.Smith to CAR 37 for 11 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 35-J.Hummel).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model