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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to ARI 24, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP