Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 2-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Woolen at SEA 25. 27-T.Woolen to SEA 25 for no gain (2-M.Brown). ARI-2-M.Brown was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.25 EP
66% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -2.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model