4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 46

Seattle Seahawks 19 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. PENALTY on ARI-7-B.Murphy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 13 yards, enforced at ARI 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP