Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 90

Seattle Seahawks 12 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson up the middle to SEA -2 for -12 yards (47-E.Turner). FUMBLES (47-E.Turner), RECOVERED by ARI-31-C.Banjo at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.59 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 90, worth -5.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.81 EP