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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 9

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 18-A.Green.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.26 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model