Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(1:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-C.Tinker. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 36 for 5 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.93 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model