Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(3:21) 14-A.Lee punts 37 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.12 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model