4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.80 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP