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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 32

Washington Commanders 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(:31) 6-J.Slye 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.57 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model