Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 0 – Washington Commanders 0

(8:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-D.Milne to WAS 19 for 9 yards (86-K.Rader).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model