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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 80

Washington Commanders 17 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 8-B.Robinson right guard to WAS 22 for 2 yards (51-D.Long; 53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.65 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model