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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 21 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to WAS 11, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-20-L.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model