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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 21 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(12:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to WAS 38 for 4 yards (95-C.Toohill).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model