4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 61

Washington Commanders 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to TEN 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.74 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model