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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 40

Washington Commanders 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:32) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 10-C.Samuel (99-R.Weaver).

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model