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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 96

Tennessee Titans 14 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to WAS 46, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-D.Milne to TEN 46 for 8 yards (8-C.Hollister; 85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 96, worth -5.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 53, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model