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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 67

Washington Commanders 10 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to TEN 19, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-22-D.Forrest.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.79 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 25, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model