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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 31 – Seattle Seahawks 25

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 4-B.Gillikin punts 25 yards to SEA 22, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.09 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model