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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 73

Seattle Seahawks 19 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to NO 18, Center-46-C.Tinker. 1-M.Callaway pushed ob at NO 39 for 21 yards (35-J.Blount). NO-96-C.Granderson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model