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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 62

New Orleans Saints 24 – Seattle Seahawks 19

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 4-B.Gillikin punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model