Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 60

Seattle Seahawks 19 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to NO 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway. PENALTY on SEA-46-C.Tinker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.94 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model