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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.62 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP