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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 31

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(:14) 9-G.Gano 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model