4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 70

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to GB 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.20 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model