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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 20 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to NYG 34, Center-56-J.Coco. 27-J.Pinnock MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 37, ball out of bounds at NYG 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model