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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 19

New York Giants 10 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:02) 9-G.Gano 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model