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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(:04) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.84 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model